A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but all factions has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
