Just 60 days in the past when the Villa attacker was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed as Unai Emery admonished him over missing a through-ball. During that period, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was whether his performances were an indicator or the source of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, however, the sideline response was much more joyous. As the in-form star curled home his second to reclaim his side's advantage, Emery tore off his jacket, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The team were on their way to a 10th successive win , despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Hopefuls?
This is a particularly tough proposition to resolve. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the wins have stacked up.
According to the data, in only two games has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than the opposition. For a club who have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – but right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of crisp finishes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and once more against the Red Devils.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from a wide position. For his second was essentially a somewhat messier replica of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more shots and more shots on target. Villa have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they have to face in the near future. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain blasting the football past despairing goalkeepers forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is a different scenario where, instead of luck running out, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker may begin to adding to his goal tally.
- Jadon Sancho might become the force he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable backline.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely cannot keep relying on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And most definitely earlier this season, nobody thought the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
